Global Warming Impacts in Pakistan: Extreme weather is Pakistan’s new normal

Pakistan is breaking heat and rainfall records, as its climate continues to warm. The country's changing weather patterns mean it now experiences a "notably different" climate to what it was just a few decades ago. The global warming impacts in Pakistan has prompted the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to issue frequent alerts and precautionary measures against heatwaves and floods, now echoing as ringtones on smartphones.

Extreme weather is the Country’s new normal due to Global Warming Impacts in Pakistan:

The country has already experienced, at least, two major heatwaves in the spring and early summer of 2025. One of the heatwave occurred in late April and early May, with the temperatures rose 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average and potentially reaching 50°C (122°F) in areas of Punjab and Sindh. 

The second heatwave impacted the country in the early June, with temperatures reaching 49°C (120°F) in some cities and feeling over 50°C in others. The global warming impacts in Pakistan symbolize a new normal in a nation on the frontline of climate change.

Many parts Likely in throes of their third heatwave:

When assessed, it feels like we now have many more very hot days and many fewer extremely cold nights. It shows the extent of how the global warming caused by the vast emissions of greenhouse gases is reshaping the country's climate. 

The change in the climate is bringing more severe weather events like storms and flooding - and inevitably having an impact on the natural world, with some species suffering. The throes of heatwaves and floods in Pakistan with very warm weather reaching into the northern areas.

 

Obviously, the observations show that our climate in Pakistan is now notably different to what it was just a few decades ago. Each year that goes by is another upward step on the warming trajectory our climate is on. 

The country continuously ranks among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, despite emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, which makes its climate change a classic case of global climate injustice? 

Wetter and hotter weather:

The unique geography of the country makes it particularly sensitive to climate shifts. Situated in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region and home to the Indus River Basin, the country spans diverse climate zones, ranging from northern glaciers to southern deserts. Its climate is so changeable and that variability also makes mapping some climate changes more difficult. 

This diverse topography exposes Pakistan to a wide range of climate hazards, including the melting of glaciers that not only raises sea levels but also leads to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), endangering the mountainous communities and water management systems. What’s more, the fluctuating temperatures and rainfall patterns affect the availability of freshwater.

The extreme weather events have become a deadly new normal for the country. These extreme events are not isolated incidents, but represent a dangerous new normal that is making agriculture and public health systems unpredictable and overstretched. The intensification of monsoon patterns has devastating effects, as visible from 2022 floods, which submerged one-third of the country, and left millions homeless and caused billions in damages.

 

The rainfall patterns fluctuate much more than temperature. Behind all these changes is the relentless rise in average temperatures, as driven by climate change. The global temperatures have risen by over 1.3C since the industrial revolution due to the humans’ continuous release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate.

Historical Warming:

The country is experiencing a warming rate higher than the global average, with significant increases in temperature and erratic rainfall patterns, or extreme weathers. It has seen a rise of 0.6°C in mean annual temperature over the 20th century, with more recent warming rate accelerating to 0.24°C per decade from 1960-2007, according to a paper by the Pakistan Engineering Congress. Projections indicate a further increase of 1.3°C to 1.5°C by 2050, which may reach 3°C to 6°C by the end of the century. 

 

The temperatures have broken the previous records, with the hottest June ever in 2025, followed 2024 that was the ninth warmest year on record, with temperatures significantly rose above the average. The national average temperature in 2024 was 23.52C, which was 0.71C higher than the long-term average to make it the ninth warmest year on record, according to Mashriq News. July 2024 was the second hottest month in 64 years.

 

Even a small shift in temperatures may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, as the graph below shows. With the distribution of temperatures shifts, those that were previously extreme are brought into the range and new extremes become more likely. We get fewer cold days, when the temperature falls as compared to the previous records.

 Regional Variations:

Warming is more pronounced in the northern parts of Pakistan with rising temperatures are causing significant changes in the regional environments and impacting the local communities. The mountains temperatures are increasing with longer summer spells and the water sources are dying up seasonally. The economic and health losses have increased due to the frequent and intense disasters, events of extreme weather, loss of biodiversity and natural resources rendering the marginalized communities to thrive in extreme poverty. 

The Himalayan population has become even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to poverty, inadequate health and education services, poor infrastructure, lacking the adaptive capacity and resilience towards climate irregularities.

 

Vulnerability: Flood risk growing

Ranking among the top 10 most affected countries, Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, and resultant floods. The devastating floods of 2022 submerged one-third of the country, and left millions homeless and caused billions in damages.

A series of hailstorms and floods that pummeled the country beginning in the last of May this year caused widespread losses, both in men and materials, as scores of people were killed and injured across KP and Punjab in winds and hailstorms and heavy rains. Areas particularly badly hit by flooding included Swat Valley, the down districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with some places recording three to four times high rains than usual.

 

The evidence of the impacts climate change is already bringing showed the urgent need for the country to adapt to cope with future extremes. The climate is likely to continue to change, and the need to prepare for the impacts this will have on the weather we experience highlights the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure and sustainable planning.

For the first time the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reports highlights the country’s warming faster than the global average. The risk of flooding is only going to increase further. We know from historical events that it is only a matter of time until the Pakistan is next in the path of a major storm surge event.